Deteksi Dini Potensi Kebangkrutan Bank dengan Model Grover
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.26740/jim.v8n3.p981-994Keywords:
bankruptcy, financial ratios, firm size, grover, market effect.Abstract
Bankruptcy is a condition when a company experiences insufficient funds to run its business. Prediction of potential bankruptcy is very important because of the need for early indications from banks using internal factors as well as external factors. One of them uses financial statements to minimize the risk of bank failure. This study aims to analyze the effect of Return on Assets (ROA), Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR), Net Performing Loan (NPL), (BOPO), Firm size, Market Effect on the potential bankruptcy of the bank using the model Grover. The total population used was 45 banks and the sample taken in this study were 37 banks listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange in the 2015-2018 period with a purposive sampling method. This research is causality research with the method of data collection using documentation, namely by taking data from the company's annual report. The data analysis method uses descriptive statistical analysis and logistic regression analysis. The results showed that the Return on Assets (ROA) ratio, Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR), Firm size, Market Effect have a positive and not significant relationship to bankruptcy potential. Whereas the Net Performing Loan (NPL) ratio, Operational Expense to Operating Income (BOPO) has a negative and insignificant relationship to the bank's potential bankruptcy. This is because the average variable value is above the criteria of Indonesian banks, and banks listed on the Indonesian stock exchange can maintain well. This indicates that the Grover model is accurate in measuring the health of banks.
References
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Martharini, L. (2012). Size Terhadap Prediksi Kondisi Bermasalah Pada Perbankan. Skripsi Sarjana, Fakultas Ekonomi Dan Bisnis Universitas Diponegoro Semarang. 25-29.
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Mubyarto. (2001). Mengatasi krisis moneter melalui penguatan ekonomi rakyat. Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Bisnis Indonesia, 16(2), 97110.
Nil Gunsel. (2012). Micro and macro determinants of bank fragility in North Cyprus economy. African Journal of Business Management, 6(4). https://doi.org/10.5897/ajbm11.1055
Nugroho, V. (2012). Pengaruh CAMEL Dalam Memprediksi Kebangkrutan Bank. Jurnal Akuntansi.Volume XVI, No. 01, Januari 2012: 145-161
Nuranto, A. A., & Ardiansari, A. (2017). Pengaruh Rasio Keuangan, Firm Size, dan Market Effect terhadap Tingkat Kebangkrutan. Management Analysis Journal, 6(2),184194. https://doi.org/10.15294/maj.v6i2.17378
Nuurillah, N., & Ardiansari, A. (2015). Analisis Kebangkrutan Menggunakan Rasio Altman Z-Score. Management Analysis Journal, 4(2), 114119. https://doi.org/10.15294/maj.v4i2.7790
Qurriyani, T. N. (2012). Deteksi Dini Potensi Kebangkrutan Bank Melalui Analisis Rasio Keuangan Dan Market Effect Model Regresi Logistik Multinomial. SNA XV Banjarmasin, 151.
Rahmaniah, M., & Wibowo, H. (2015). Analisis Potensi Terjadinya Financial Distress pada Bank Umum Syariah (BUS) di Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Perbankan Syariah. 3(1): 1-20
Ramadhan, F. M. (2018). 20 Tahun Jatuh Bangun Nilai Tukar Rupiah Terhadap Dolar. Retrieved from https://grafis.tempo.co/read/1382/20-tahun-jatuh-bangun-nilai-tukar-rupiah-terhadap-dolar
Ridloah. (2013). Faktor Penentu Struktur Modal: Studi Empirik Pada Perusahaan Multifinansial. Jurnal Dinamika Manajemen, 1(2), 144153. https://doi.org/10.15294/jdm.v1i2.2470
Spence. M. (1973). Job market signalling. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 87(3), 355374.
Sudana. (2011). Manajemen Keuangan Perusahaan Teori dan Pratik. Jakarta: PT Gelora Aksara Pratama.
Tatom, J., & Houston, R. (2011). Predicting Failure in the Commercial Banking Industry. SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1969091
Theodorus, S., & Artini, L. G. S. (2018). Studi Financial Distress Pada Perusahaan Perbankan Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis Universitas Udayana ( Unud ), Bali , Indonesia. Jurnal Manajemen, 7(5), 27102732. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.24843/EJMUNUD.2018.v7.i05.p16
Yoz, (2009). BI Akhirnya Likuidasi Bank IFI - hukumonline.com. Retrieved from https://www.hukumonline.com/berita/baca/hol21761/bi-akhirnya-likuidasi-bank-ifi/
Alifiah, M. N. (2014). Prediction of Financial Distress Companies in the Trading and Services Sector in Malaysia Using Macroeconomic Variables. Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, 129, 9098. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2014.03.652
Andrianti. (2016). Analisis Ketepatan Model Altman, Springate, Zmijewski, Ohlson, Dan Grover Sebagai Detektor Kebangkrutan. Jurnal Ilmu & Riset Manajemen, 3637. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324.004
Asmoro, A. (2010). Analisis Pengaruh Rasio Keuangan Terhadap Prediksi Kondisi Bermasalah Pada Bank. Jurnal Ilmu Manajemen., 69-80.
Baselga-Pascual, L., Trujillo-Ponce, A., & Cardone-Riportella, C. (2015). Factors influencing bank risk in Europe: Evidence from the financial crisis. The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 34, 138166. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.NAJEF.2015.08.004
Bestari, A. R. (2013). Pengaruh Rasio Camel Dan Ukuran Bank Terhadap Prediksi Kondisi Bermasalah Pada Sektor Perbankan (Studi Pada Perusahaan Perbankan yang Terdaftar Di Bursa Efek Indonesia Tahun 2007 2011 ). Skripsi Sarjana, Fakultas Ekonomika Dan Bisnis Universitas Diponegoro
Festiani, E. R. (2018). Analisis Pengaruh Rasio CAR, NPF, BOPO, ROA dan FDR terhadap tingkat Kesehatan Bank Umum Syariah di Indonesia. El Dinar, 4(2), 196. https://doi.org/10.18860/ed.v4i2.5462
Graham, M. (2019). Prospek Menurun: Pertumbuhan Global Melambat menjadi 2,9 persen pada 2019 karena Perdagangan, Investasi Melemah. Retrieved from https://www.worldbank.org/in/news/pressrelease/2019/01/08/darkening-prospects-global-economy-to-slow-to-29-percent-in-2019-as-trade-investment-weaken
Halim, C. (2016). Analisis Pengaruh Rasio Keuangan dan Market Effect Untuk Memprediksi Kebangkrutan Bank. Jurnal Online Mahasiswa Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Riau, 3(1), 1-15.
Hanifah. (2013). Pengaruh Struktur Corporate Governance Dan Financial Indicators Terhadap Kondisi Financial Distress ( Studi Pada Perusahaan Manufaktur Yang Terdaftar Di Bursa. Diponegoro Journal of Accounting, 2, 115.
Haryanto, S. (2014). Identifikasi Ekspektasi Investor Melalui Kebijakan Struktur Modal, Profitabilitas, Ukuran Perusahaan Dan Gcpi. Jurnal Dinamika Manajemen, 5(2). https://doi.org/10.15294/jdm.v5i2.3660
Hutasoit, M. R. F. dan Haryanto, M. (2016). Pengaruh LDR, NPL, BOPO, Ukuran Perusahaan. dan CAR Terhadap Risiko Kebangkrutan Bank ( Studi pada Bank Umum Konvensional Periode 2012-2014 ). Dipanegoro Journal of Management, 5(3), 113. Retrieved from http://ejournal-s1.undip.ac.id/index.php/management
Ido, G. A. (2016). Analisis Bank Size, Ldr, Car, Npl Di Sektor Perbankan Yang Terdaftar Di Bursa Efek Indonesia. Artikel Ilmiah Stie Perbanas Surabaya, 118. Retrieved from http://eprints.perbanas.ac.id/1724/1/Artikel Ilmiah.pdf
Junaidi, J. (2016). Pengukuran Tingkat Kesehatan Dan Gejala Financial Distress Pada Bank Umum Syariah Di Indonesia. Kinerja. 20(1): 42-52. https://doi.org/10.24002/kinerja.v20i1.696
Kasmir. (2017). Analisis laporan keuangan. Jakarta: PT Rajagrafindo Persada.
Kegagalan Bank Century Karena Pemilik - News Liputan6.com, (2009). Retrieved from https://www.liputan6.com/news/read/255529/kegagalan-bank-century-karena-pemilik
Kuncoro, S., & Agustina, L. (2017). Factors to Predict the Financial Distress Condition of the Banking Listed in The Indonesia Stock Exchange. Accounting Analysis Journal, 6(1), 3947. https://doi.org/10.15294/aaj.v6i1.11343
Kristanti, F. T. (2014). Prediksi Kebangkrutan Bank-Bank. Jurnal Keuangan dan perbankan. 18(1), 130138.
Kristanti, F. T., Rahayu, S., & Huda, A. N. (2016). The Determinant of Financial Distress on Indonesian Family Firm. Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, 219, 440447. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2016.05.018
Lembaga Penjamin Simpanan - PT. Bank IFI - Bank Yang Dilikuidasi, (2008). Retrieved from https://www.lps.go.id/bank-yang-dilikuidasi/-/asset_publisher/Z7el/content/pt-bank-ifi-dl
Martharini, L. (2012). Size Terhadap Prediksi Kondisi Bermasalah Pada Perbankan. Skripsi Sarjana, Fakultas Ekonomi Dan Bisnis Universitas Diponegoro Semarang. 25-29.
MF Global Bangkrut Gara-gara Krisis Eropa, Wall Street Merosot. (2011). Retrieved from https://finance.detik.com/bursa-dan-valas/d-1756986/mf-global-bangkrut-gara-gara-krisis-eropa-wall-street-merosot?_ga=2.56455019.1582412994.1580695032-615238245.1580695032.
Mubyarto. (2001). Mengatasi krisis moneter melalui penguatan ekonomi rakyat. Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Bisnis Indonesia, 16(2), 97110.
Nil Gunsel. (2012). Micro and macro determinants of bank fragility in North Cyprus economy. African Journal of Business Management, 6(4). https://doi.org/10.5897/ajbm11.1055
Nugroho, V. (2012). Pengaruh CAMEL Dalam Memprediksi Kebangkrutan Bank. Jurnal Akuntansi.Volume XVI, No. 01, Januari 2012: 145-161
Nuranto, A. A., & Ardiansari, A. (2017). Pengaruh Rasio Keuangan, Firm Size, dan Market Effect terhadap Tingkat Kebangkrutan. Management Analysis Journal, 6(2),184194. https://doi.org/10.15294/maj.v6i2.17378
Nuurillah, N., & Ardiansari, A. (2015). Analisis Kebangkrutan Menggunakan Rasio Altman Z-Score. Management Analysis Journal, 4(2), 114119. https://doi.org/10.15294/maj.v4i2.7790
Qurriyani, T. N. (2012). Deteksi Dini Potensi Kebangkrutan Bank Melalui Analisis Rasio Keuangan Dan Market Effect Model Regresi Logistik Multinomial. SNA XV Banjarmasin, 151.
Rahmaniah, M., & Wibowo, H. (2015). Analisis Potensi Terjadinya Financial Distress pada Bank Umum Syariah (BUS) di Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Perbankan Syariah. 3(1): 1-20
Ramadhan, F. M. (2018). 20 Tahun Jatuh Bangun Nilai Tukar Rupiah Terhadap Dolar. Retrieved from https://grafis.tempo.co/read/1382/20-tahun-jatuh-bangun-nilai-tukar-rupiah-terhadap-dolar
Ridloah. (2013). Faktor Penentu Struktur Modal: Studi Empirik Pada Perusahaan Multifinansial. Jurnal Dinamika Manajemen, 1(2), 144153. https://doi.org/10.15294/jdm.v1i2.2470
Spence. M. (1973). Job market signalling. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 87(3), 355374.
Sudana. (2011). Manajemen Keuangan Perusahaan Teori dan Pratik. Jakarta: PT Gelora Aksara Pratama.
Tatom, J., & Houston, R. (2011). Predicting Failure in the Commercial Banking Industry. SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1969091
Theodorus, S., & Artini, L. G. S. (2018). Studi Financial Distress Pada Perusahaan Perbankan Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis Universitas Udayana ( Unud ), Bali , Indonesia. Jurnal Manajemen, 7(5), 27102732. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.24843/EJMUNUD.2018.v7.i05.p16
Yoz, (2009). BI Akhirnya Likuidasi Bank IFI - hukumonline.com. Retrieved from https://www.hukumonline.com/berita/baca/hol21761/bi-akhirnya-likuidasi-bank-ifi/
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2020-07-16
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Aeni, A. N. (2020). Deteksi Dini Potensi Kebangkrutan Bank dengan Model Grover. Jurnal Ilmu Manajemen, 8(3), 981–994. https://doi.org/10.26740/jim.v8n3.p981-994
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