Analisis Pengaruh Makroekonomi, Komoditas Dunia, dan Indeks Dunia terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) pada Periode 2014-2019
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.26740/jim.v9n1.p295-310Keywords:
Jakarta Composite Index (JCI), macroeconomic, world comodites, world indexAbstract
This research explains the influence of inflation, Exchange Rate, BI Rate, GDP, World Gold Price, Crude Oil Price, Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), and Nikkei 225 toward Jakarta Composite Index (JCI). Type of research used in causality research with a quantitative approach. The sample was based on daily time series data from 1 January 2014 until 31 December 2019, using a complete sampling method that consists of 2190 samples. This research used a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) method. The result of hypothesis testing by the GARCH method shows that the World Gold Price and Dow Jones Industrial Average significant have a positive effect, Then the Nikkei 225 significant have a negative effect, and then the Inflation, Exchange Rate, BI Rate, and GDP have not significant to the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI). The implication of this research provides information to investors who must pay attention to World Gold Price, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nikkei225 if they want to invest in Indonesian.
References
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Anggraini, F. N., & Nurhadi. (2019). Indeks Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), Indeks Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE), Kurs USD/IDR Dan BI Rate Berpengaruh Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) Di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) Periode 2015-2018. Jurnal Bisnis Indonesia, 10(1), 5769.
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Dwiati, A. R., & Ambarwati, Y. B. (2016). Pengaruh Harga Emas Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan Indonesia dengan Nilai Kurs Sebagai Variabel Moderating. E-Jurnal Manajemen & Bisnis , 19.
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Ghiffari, M. F., Kindangen, P., & Tumewu, F. (2017). The Causality Relationship Of Dow Jones Industrial Average (Djia) And Nikkei 225 Towards Jakarta Composite Index (Jci) Period 2011 2016. Jurnal EMBA, 5(2), 445-454.
Gunawan, J. L. (2014). Pengaruh Inflasi, Suku Bunga Sbi, Pdb Dan Nilai Tukar Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (Ihsg) Di Bursa Efek Indonesia Tahun 2000-2014. Parsimonia, 116.
Handiani, S. (2014). Pengaruh Harga Emas Dunia, Harga Minyak Dunia dan Nilai Tukar Dolar Amerika/Rupiah Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan Pada Periode 2008-2013. E-Journal Graduate Unpar, 1(1), 8593. Retrieved from http://journal.unpar.ac.id/index.php/unpargraduate/article/view/552
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Iman Zabidi, I., & Asandimitra Haryono, N. (2018). Pengaruh Inflasi, Kurs, Suku Bunga Sbi, Dow Jones, Dan Nikkei 225 Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan Pada Bursa Efek Indonesia Periode 2012-2016. Jurnal Ilmu Manajemen (JIM), 6(4), 468476.
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Katircioglu, S. T., Sertoglu, K., Candemir, M., & Mercan, M. (2015). Oil price movements and macroeconomic performance: Evidence from twenty-six OECD countries. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 44, 257270. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2014.12.016
Kewal, S. S. (2012). Pengaruh Inflasi, Suku Bunga, Kurs, Dan Pertumbuhan Pdb Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan. Jurnal Economia, 8(1), 5364. https://doi.org/10.21831/economia.v8i1.801
Kowanda, D., Binastuti, S., & Pasaribu, R. B. F. (2014). Pengaruh Bursa Saham Global , Asean , Dan Harga Komoditas Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan. Jurnal Akuntansi & Manajemen (JAM). 25(2), 7988.
Malhotra, N. K. (2010). Riset Pemasaran (Marketing Research) (4th ed.). New Jersey: PT. Indeks.
Mangala, D., & Rani, A. (2015). Revisiting the Dynamic Relationship between Macroeconomic Fundamentals and Stock Prices: An Evidence from Indian Stock Market. International Journal of Financial Management, 5(3), 53-63. https://doi.org/10.21863/ijfm/2015.5.3.017
Marjohan, M. (2015). Effect of Stock Price Index in Global Stock againstComposite Stock Price Index (CSPI)Study on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. IOSR Journal of Economics and Finance Ver III, 6(2), 23215933. https://doi.org/10.9790/5933-06231523.
Martin (2014). Indeks Dow Jones 30 Yang Harus Anda Tahu. Retrieved November 21, 2019, from https://www.seputarforex.com/artikel/indeks-dow-jones-30-yang-harus-anda-tahu-186441-34.
Maulinda, T. S. (2018). Pengaruh Harga Minyak Dunia, Nilai Tukar, Inflasi, Suku Bunga SBI, Indeks Dow Jones, dan Indeks Nikkei 225 terhadap Indeks Sektor Pertambangan yang Terdaftar Di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) Periode 2011-2017. Jurnal Ilmu Manajemen (JIM), 6(3), 314322.
Mursalin, A., Oktaviani, D., Aisyah, & Niswan, E. (2017). The Influence Of Dollar Exchange Rate, The Dow Jones Index And The Interest Rate Of Bank Indonesia Certificates (SBI) On The Composite Stock Price Index (During The Period Of January 2015 To December 2015). International Journal on Recent Trends in Business and Tourism, 1(04), 6979.
Nasser, F. A. M., Rosid, C. M. A. C., & Baharuddin, N. S. (2017). Relation between Macroeconomic Variables and ASEAN Stock Index. Terengganu International Finance and Economics Journal 5(1), 713.
Nellawati, S. O., & Isbanah, Y. (2019). Analisis pengaruh faktor internal dan faktor eksternal terhadap pergerakan indeks harga saham gabungan (ihsg) di bursa efek indonesia periode 2012 2016. Jurnal Ilmu Manajemen (JIM). 7(1), 113123.
Nordin, N., Nordin, S., & Ismail, R. (2014). The impact of commodity prices, interest rate and exchange rate on stock market performance: an empirical analysis from Malaysia. Malaysian Management Journal, 18, 3952.
Otorima, M., & Kesuma, A. (2016). Pengaruh Nilai Tukar, Suku Bunga, Inflasi, Jumlah Uang Beredar Dan Pdb Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (Ihsg) Periode 2005-2015. Jurnal Terapan Manajemen Dan Bisnis, 53(9), 1224. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324.004
Pamungkas, B. C., & Darwan, A. (2018). Pengaruh Nilai Tukar USD Dan Bursa Asean Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) ( Studi pada Bursa Efek Indonesia Periode 2014 2016 ). Jurnal Administrasi Bisnis, 60(1), 7381.
Pamungkas, B. S., & Prasetiono. (2018). Analisis Pengaruh Harga Minyak Dunia , Kurs Pasar Saham Di Indonesia. Diponegoro Journal of Management. 7(2), 114.
Pardede, N., Hidayat, R. R., & Sulasmiyati, S. (2016). Pengaruh Harga Minyak Mentah Dunia, Inflasi, Suku Bunga (Central Bank Rate), Dan Nilai Tukar (Kurs) Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Sektor Pertambangan Di Asean. Jurnal Administrasi Bisnis, 39(1), 130-138.
Pribadi, A. K. (2016). Pengaruh Harga Minyak Mentah Dunia, Dow Jones Industrial Average, dan Inflasi Terhadap Harga Saham Perusahaan Di BEI. IOSR Journal of Economics and Finance, 3(1), 1217. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000238666
Puspitasari, A., Siregar, H., & Andati, T. (2015). Analisis Integrasi Bursa Saham ASEAN 5 (Analysis of Stock Exchange Integration of ASEAN 5). Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Kebijakan Pembangunan, 4(2), 187204.
Riga, M. H., Indriana, V., & Rahmanto, F. (2016). The Effects of Crude Oil Price Changes on the Indonesian Stock Market: A Sector Investigation. Indonesian Capital Market Review, 8(1), 1222. https://doi.org/10.21002/icmr.v8i1.5442
Robiyanto, & Fajar Hartanto, A. (2018). Contagion Effect Dan Integrasi Pasar Modal Di Kawasan Asia, Eropa Dan Amerika. Jurnal Organisasi Dan Manajemen, 14(1), 19. https://doi.org/10.33830/jom.v14i1.138.2018
Rustyaningsih, D. (2018). Pengaruh Pdb, Inflasi, Nilai Tukar, Harga Minyak Dunia, Harga Emas Dunia Dan Indeks Nikkei 225 Terhadap Indeks Sektor Pertambangan Periode 2011-2016. Jurnal Ilmu Manajemen (JIM), 6(4), 609619.
Sari, N. S., & Purwohandoko. (2019). Dampak Pengaruh Bursa Saham Global, Harga Emas Dunia dan Variabel Makroekonomi Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan Periode 2009-2018. Jurnal Ilmu Manajemen (JIM), 7(3), 772783.
Sugiyono. (2017). Metode Penelitian Kuantitatif, Kualitatif, dan R&D. Bandung: ALFABETA.
Syaifuddin, D., Sarita, B., & Mahrani, S. W. (2015). Manajemen Keuangan Internasional. Yogyakarta: Kurnia Global Diagnostika
Syarif, M. M., & Asandimitra, N. (2015). Pengaruh Indikator Makro Ekonomi Dan Faktor Global Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG). Competence: Journal of Management Studies, 9(2), 142-156.
Tandelilin. (2010). Portofolio dan Investasi Teori dan Aplikasi (1st ed.). Yogyakarta: BPFE-Yogyakarta.
Tjandrasa, B. B., & Sutjiati, R. (2016). Effect of World Gold Price, Crude Oil Price and Interest Rate to Jakarta Composite Index. International Journal of Education and Research, 4(7), 215222. Retrieved from www.ijern.com
UFX (2016). Perdagangan Indeks Nikkei225. Retrieved November 23, 2019, from https://www.ufx.com/id-id/aset/indeks/nikkei/
Zoa, C. H., Chet, F. W., Sheng, H. Y., Lin, W. H., & Shen, Y. J. (2014). The Impact of Macroeconomic Variables on the Stock Market Performance in Japan. E-Journals. UTAR, 1139.
Zuhri, S., Hufron, M., & Mustapita, A. F. (2019). Pengaruh Inflasi, kurs, dan BI Rate terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) Periode 2014 2018. E-Jurnal Riset Manajemen, 1, 4155.
Alim, S. (2014). Analisis Pengaruh Inflasi Dan Bi Rate Terhadap Return on Assets (Roa) Bank Syariah Di Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi MODERNISASI, 10(3), 201. https://doi.org/10.21067/jem.v10i3.785
Anati, F. A., Mardani, R. M., & Wahono, B. (2019). Pengaruh Kurs, Inflasi, Suku Bunga Sbi dan Indeks Bursa Internasioal Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan. E-Jurnal Riset Manajemen, 1, 2845.
Andiyasa, I. G. A., Purbawangsa, I. B. A., & Henny, R. (2014). Indikator Ekonomi Global Terhadap Kondisi Pasar Modal Indonesia. E-Jurnal Manajemen, 1, 182199.
Anggraini, F. N., & Nurhadi. (2019). Indeks Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), Indeks Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE), Kurs USD/IDR Dan BI Rate Berpengaruh Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) Di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) Periode 2015-2018. Jurnal Bisnis Indonesia, 10(1), 5769.
Asean Exchange. (2019). Retrieved November 19, 2019, from https://www.aseanexchanges.org/#/
Astiyah Siti, & Suseno. (2009). I n f l a s i. Jakarta: bi.go.id.
BKPM. (2019). Badan Koordinasi Penanaman Modal. Retrieved November 21, 2019, from https://www.bkpm.go.id/id/publikasi/detail/berita/nilai-investasi-kuartal-i-tembus-rp1951-triliun/
Diskartes. (2017). Risiko Investasi Saham Yang Harus Anda Pahami. Retrieved November 16, 2019, from https://diskartes.com/2017/07/risiko-investasi-saham/
Dwi Puspita, M., & Seno Aji, T. (2018). Analisis Pengaruh Inflasi, Suku Bunga SBI, Nilai Tukar, Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB) dan Indeks Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) Terhadap Indeks Kompas100 Periode Januari 2012-Desember 2017. Jurnal Ilmu Manajemen (JIM), 6(3), 333341.
Dwiati, A. R., & Ambarwati, Y. B. (2016). Pengaruh Harga Emas Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan Indonesia dengan Nilai Kurs Sebagai Variabel Moderating. E-Jurnal Manajemen & Bisnis , 19.
Fahmi, I. (2012). Analisis Kinerja Perusahaan (1st ed.). Bandung: alfabeta.
Ghiffari, M. F., Kindangen, P., & Tumewu, F. (2017). The Causality Relationship Of Dow Jones Industrial Average (Djia) And Nikkei 225 Towards Jakarta Composite Index (Jci) Period 2011 2016. Jurnal EMBA, 5(2), 445-454.
Gunawan, J. L. (2014). Pengaruh Inflasi, Suku Bunga Sbi, Pdb Dan Nilai Tukar Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (Ihsg) Di Bursa Efek Indonesia Tahun 2000-2014. Parsimonia, 116.
Handiani, S. (2014). Pengaruh Harga Emas Dunia, Harga Minyak Dunia dan Nilai Tukar Dolar Amerika/Rupiah Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan Pada Periode 2008-2013. E-Journal Graduate Unpar, 1(1), 8593. Retrieved from http://journal.unpar.ac.id/index.php/unpargraduate/article/view/552
Hersugondo, Robiyanto, Wahyudi, S., & Muharam, H. (2015). The world oil price movements and stock returns in several southeast Asias capital markets. International Journal of Applied Business and Economic Research, 13(2), 527534.
Iman Zabidi, I., & Asandimitra Haryono, N. (2018). Pengaruh Inflasi, Kurs, Suku Bunga Sbi, Dow Jones, Dan Nikkei 225 Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan Pada Bursa Efek Indonesia Periode 2012-2016. Jurnal Ilmu Manajemen (JIM), 6(4), 468476.
Investing.com. 2019. Grafik Indeks Sektoral. (www.investing.com, Diakses pada 29 September 2019).
Juliana, A., Hamidatun, & Muslima, R. (2019). Modern Forecasting (1st ed.). Sleman: www.deepublish.com
Katircioglu, S. T., Sertoglu, K., Candemir, M., & Mercan, M. (2015). Oil price movements and macroeconomic performance: Evidence from twenty-six OECD countries. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 44, 257270. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2014.12.016
Kewal, S. S. (2012). Pengaruh Inflasi, Suku Bunga, Kurs, Dan Pertumbuhan Pdb Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan. Jurnal Economia, 8(1), 5364. https://doi.org/10.21831/economia.v8i1.801
Kowanda, D., Binastuti, S., & Pasaribu, R. B. F. (2014). Pengaruh Bursa Saham Global , Asean , Dan Harga Komoditas Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan. Jurnal Akuntansi & Manajemen (JAM). 25(2), 7988.
Malhotra, N. K. (2010). Riset Pemasaran (Marketing Research) (4th ed.). New Jersey: PT. Indeks.
Mangala, D., & Rani, A. (2015). Revisiting the Dynamic Relationship between Macroeconomic Fundamentals and Stock Prices: An Evidence from Indian Stock Market. International Journal of Financial Management, 5(3), 53-63. https://doi.org/10.21863/ijfm/2015.5.3.017
Marjohan, M. (2015). Effect of Stock Price Index in Global Stock againstComposite Stock Price Index (CSPI)Study on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. IOSR Journal of Economics and Finance Ver III, 6(2), 23215933. https://doi.org/10.9790/5933-06231523.
Martin (2014). Indeks Dow Jones 30 Yang Harus Anda Tahu. Retrieved November 21, 2019, from https://www.seputarforex.com/artikel/indeks-dow-jones-30-yang-harus-anda-tahu-186441-34.
Maulinda, T. S. (2018). Pengaruh Harga Minyak Dunia, Nilai Tukar, Inflasi, Suku Bunga SBI, Indeks Dow Jones, dan Indeks Nikkei 225 terhadap Indeks Sektor Pertambangan yang Terdaftar Di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) Periode 2011-2017. Jurnal Ilmu Manajemen (JIM), 6(3), 314322.
Mursalin, A., Oktaviani, D., Aisyah, & Niswan, E. (2017). The Influence Of Dollar Exchange Rate, The Dow Jones Index And The Interest Rate Of Bank Indonesia Certificates (SBI) On The Composite Stock Price Index (During The Period Of January 2015 To December 2015). International Journal on Recent Trends in Business and Tourism, 1(04), 6979.
Nasser, F. A. M., Rosid, C. M. A. C., & Baharuddin, N. S. (2017). Relation between Macroeconomic Variables and ASEAN Stock Index. Terengganu International Finance and Economics Journal 5(1), 713.
Nellawati, S. O., & Isbanah, Y. (2019). Analisis pengaruh faktor internal dan faktor eksternal terhadap pergerakan indeks harga saham gabungan (ihsg) di bursa efek indonesia periode 2012 2016. Jurnal Ilmu Manajemen (JIM). 7(1), 113123.
Nordin, N., Nordin, S., & Ismail, R. (2014). The impact of commodity prices, interest rate and exchange rate on stock market performance: an empirical analysis from Malaysia. Malaysian Management Journal, 18, 3952.
Otorima, M., & Kesuma, A. (2016). Pengaruh Nilai Tukar, Suku Bunga, Inflasi, Jumlah Uang Beredar Dan Pdb Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (Ihsg) Periode 2005-2015. Jurnal Terapan Manajemen Dan Bisnis, 53(9), 1224. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324.004
Pamungkas, B. C., & Darwan, A. (2018). Pengaruh Nilai Tukar USD Dan Bursa Asean Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) ( Studi pada Bursa Efek Indonesia Periode 2014 2016 ). Jurnal Administrasi Bisnis, 60(1), 7381.
Pamungkas, B. S., & Prasetiono. (2018). Analisis Pengaruh Harga Minyak Dunia , Kurs Pasar Saham Di Indonesia. Diponegoro Journal of Management. 7(2), 114.
Pardede, N., Hidayat, R. R., & Sulasmiyati, S. (2016). Pengaruh Harga Minyak Mentah Dunia, Inflasi, Suku Bunga (Central Bank Rate), Dan Nilai Tukar (Kurs) Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Sektor Pertambangan Di Asean. Jurnal Administrasi Bisnis, 39(1), 130-138.
Pribadi, A. K. (2016). Pengaruh Harga Minyak Mentah Dunia, Dow Jones Industrial Average, dan Inflasi Terhadap Harga Saham Perusahaan Di BEI. IOSR Journal of Economics and Finance, 3(1), 1217. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000238666
Puspitasari, A., Siregar, H., & Andati, T. (2015). Analisis Integrasi Bursa Saham ASEAN 5 (Analysis of Stock Exchange Integration of ASEAN 5). Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Kebijakan Pembangunan, 4(2), 187204.
Riga, M. H., Indriana, V., & Rahmanto, F. (2016). The Effects of Crude Oil Price Changes on the Indonesian Stock Market: A Sector Investigation. Indonesian Capital Market Review, 8(1), 1222. https://doi.org/10.21002/icmr.v8i1.5442
Robiyanto, & Fajar Hartanto, A. (2018). Contagion Effect Dan Integrasi Pasar Modal Di Kawasan Asia, Eropa Dan Amerika. Jurnal Organisasi Dan Manajemen, 14(1), 19. https://doi.org/10.33830/jom.v14i1.138.2018
Rustyaningsih, D. (2018). Pengaruh Pdb, Inflasi, Nilai Tukar, Harga Minyak Dunia, Harga Emas Dunia Dan Indeks Nikkei 225 Terhadap Indeks Sektor Pertambangan Periode 2011-2016. Jurnal Ilmu Manajemen (JIM), 6(4), 609619.
Sari, N. S., & Purwohandoko. (2019). Dampak Pengaruh Bursa Saham Global, Harga Emas Dunia dan Variabel Makroekonomi Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan Periode 2009-2018. Jurnal Ilmu Manajemen (JIM), 7(3), 772783.
Sugiyono. (2017). Metode Penelitian Kuantitatif, Kualitatif, dan R&D. Bandung: ALFABETA.
Syaifuddin, D., Sarita, B., & Mahrani, S. W. (2015). Manajemen Keuangan Internasional. Yogyakarta: Kurnia Global Diagnostika
Syarif, M. M., & Asandimitra, N. (2015). Pengaruh Indikator Makro Ekonomi Dan Faktor Global Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG). Competence: Journal of Management Studies, 9(2), 142-156.
Tandelilin. (2010). Portofolio dan Investasi Teori dan Aplikasi (1st ed.). Yogyakarta: BPFE-Yogyakarta.
Tjandrasa, B. B., & Sutjiati, R. (2016). Effect of World Gold Price, Crude Oil Price and Interest Rate to Jakarta Composite Index. International Journal of Education and Research, 4(7), 215222. Retrieved from www.ijern.com
UFX (2016). Perdagangan Indeks Nikkei225. Retrieved November 23, 2019, from https://www.ufx.com/id-id/aset/indeks/nikkei/
Zoa, C. H., Chet, F. W., Sheng, H. Y., Lin, W. H., & Shen, Y. J. (2014). The Impact of Macroeconomic Variables on the Stock Market Performance in Japan. E-Journals. UTAR, 1139.
Zuhri, S., Hufron, M., & Mustapita, A. F. (2019). Pengaruh Inflasi, kurs, dan BI Rate terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) Periode 2014 2018. E-Jurnal Riset Manajemen, 1, 4155.
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2021-03-31
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Ahmad, F. (2021). Analisis Pengaruh Makroekonomi, Komoditas Dunia, dan Indeks Dunia terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) pada Periode 2014-2019. Jurnal Ilmu Manajemen, 9(1), 295–310. https://doi.org/10.26740/jim.v9n1.p295-310
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