KETIDAKPATUHAN TIONGKOK TERHADAP PUTUSAN ARBITRASE PCA TAHUN 2016 DI LAUT TIONGKOK SELATAN: ANALISIS MELALUI TEORI REALISME DAN TEORI KEPATUHAN TERHADAP HUKUM INTERNASIONAL.

Abstract

This research examines China's non-compliance with the 2016 Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) Award rendered through the special arbitration mechanism under Annex VII of UNCLOS 1982 in the South China Sea dispute. Employing a socio-legal methodology integrating international law, international relations, and political science, this study applies two primary theoretical frameworks: Realism Theory and International Law Compliance Theory. Two central problems are analyzed: first, how China's non-compliance is explained through Realism Theory and Compliance Theory; and second, what legal implications the 2016 PCA Award holds for the validity of China's maritime claims, the strengthening of Philippine sovereign rights, and the effectiveness of UNCLOS dispute settlement mechanisms. The research finds that China's non-compliance constitutes deliberate non-compliance — rational and strategically calculated — wherein the costs of complying with the PCA Award are perceived to far exceed the reputational costs of non-compliance. Realism Theory provides the highest explanatory capacity, while interest-based Compliance Theory confirms that China consciously chooses non-compliance because strategic benefits outweigh the costs. Furthermore, the PCA Award normatively invalidates the nine-dash line, strengthens Philippine sovereign rights through the Philippine Maritime Zones Act 2024, yet exposes a structural enforcement gap within the UNCLOS dispute resolution mechanism.