Prediksi Ketersediaan Air Embung Kolong Kebintik Sebagai Sumber Air Baku Menggunakan Jaringan Syaraf Tiruan

Adriyansyah adriyansyah; Saprizal Saprizal

doi:10.26740/proteksi.v6n1.p110-117

Authors

Adriyansyah adriyansyah Universitas Bangka Belitung
Saprizal Saprizal Kementerian PUPR

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.26740/proteksi.v6n1.p110-117

Keywords:

Air baku, Jaringan syaraf tiruan, Ketersediaan air, Kolong kebintik

Abstract

Jaringan syaraf tiruan merupakan salah satu metode deep learning yang proses kerjanya terinspirasi dari cara kerja otak manusia. Jaringan syaraf tiruan memiliki kemampuan dalam mengenali pola data dengan cara melakukan proses pelatihan dan pengujian. Pada proses pelatihan, metode jaringan syaraf tiruan akan memperbaharui nilai bobot sehingga nilai bobot tersebut terlatih untuk mengetahui pola data. Sedangkan pada proses pengujian, jaringan syaraf tiruan melakukan prediksi data yang menjadi target dalam pengujian. Penelitian ini menggunakan data ketersedian air Embung Kolong Kebintik dari bulan Januari 2009- Desember 2022. Data tersebut kemudian dibagi menjadi 90% data pelatihan dan 10% data pengujian. Metode feed-forward yang digunakan pada proses pelatihan yaitu Levenberg Marquardt dan LearnGDM. Aristektur jaringan yang digunakan yaitu arsitektur (12,144,1). Ketika dilakukan simulasi, diperlukan beberapa kali uji coba untuk mendapatkan arsitektur jaringan yang menghasilkan nilai MSE kecil. Hasil simulasi pada epoch 154 iterasi, menghasilkan nilai MSE = 0.0071 untuk pelatihan dan MSE = 0.010 untuk pengujian. Jika dilihat dari hasil prediksi ketersedian air Embung Kolong Kebintik bulan Januari 2023-Desember 2026, maka hasil prediksi cenderung menghasilkan nilai yang sama untuk prediksi dalam rentang waktu yang panjang. Nilai MSE yang kecil pada proses pelatihan dan pengujian, tidak menjamin bahwa hasil prediksi akan menghasilkan prediksi yang baik.

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