ESTIMASI PARAMETER PADA MODEL MATEMATIKA PENYEBARAN COVID-19 DI TUBAN, JAWA TIMUR
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Abstract
COVID-19 merupakan penyakit yang disebabkan oleh. Coronavirus 2 Syndrome Acute Syndrome (SARS-CoV-2). Penularan COVID-19 terjadi karena droplet yang dikeluarkan oleh orang yang terkena COVID-19. Penularan tersebut terjadi dengan cepat hingga meluas diberbagai daerah dipenjuru dunia. Salah satu daerah yang terdampak yaitu Kabupaten Tuban. Minimnya orang yang memperhatikan protokol kesehatan membuat penularan COVID-19 di Tuban semakin cepat. Berbagai tindakan yang tepat sangat dibutuhkan untuk mengatasi penyebaran COVID-19 di kota Tuban. Untuk memberikan tindakan yang tepat dibutuhkan sebuah analisa penyebaran penyakit dengan melihat beberapa parameter yang berpengaruh dalam penyebaran COVID-19. Pada penelitian ini dilakukan simualasi penyebaran COVID-19 menggunakan SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, Recovered) dengan menggunakan metode Runge-Kutta. Populasi Exposed digunakan sebagai populasi yang dicurigai dapat terinfeksi COVID-19. Hasil dari penelitian ini menunjukan bahwa estimasi parameter pada model matematika dapat memperkecil error yang ditunjukkan dengan MAPE yang kecil.
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