PREDICTING OMICRON DAILY NEW CASES IN INDONESIA AND ITS MEAN RECURRENCE TIME USING MODIFIED WEIGHTED MARKOV CHAIN

Abstract

This study presents the prediction of daily new cases of the Covid-19 Omicron variant and the average time of appearance using a modified Weighted Markov Chain (WMC) model. The proposed model is the modification of the WMC model and is implemented to Omicron daily new cases in Indonesia, from 12 February 2022 to 25 February 2022, to predict new case on 26 February 2022. The outcome of the modified WMC model is in the form of state represented by the interval where the predicted new case belongs to. The first session of this article is to introduce a new approach in calculating the weight of WMC model. The second and main session provides an analysis of the simulation results of a three-state modified WMC based on the variation of the maximum step in the model. The analysis result shows that the difference in the maximum steps does not affect the final result of the predicted new case. The last stage provides the predicting of the mean recurrence time of Omicron daily new cases based on 3 states in the model. In the long term, the Omicron daily new cases will be in states 1 and 2 every 2.5 days, with the probability of 0.4, and occurs in state 3 every 5 days, with the probability of 0.2.