ESTIMASI PARAMETER PADA MODEL MATEMATIKA PENYEBARAN COVID-19 DI TUBAN, JAWA TIMUR

Authors

  • Ahmad Zaenal Arifin Program Studi Matematika Universitas PGRI Ronggolawe
  • MUHAMMAD FAHRUR ROZI Universitas Islam negeri Sunan Ampel
  • RIFA ATUL HASANAH Unviersitas Islam Negeri Sunan Ampel
  • Dian Candra Rini Novitasari Prodi Matematika Unviersitas Islam Negeri Sunan Ampel

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.26740/jram.v5n2.p132-143

Keywords:

Covid-19, SEIR, Runge-Kutta, MAPE

Abstract

COVID-19 merupakan penyakit yang disebabkan oleh. Coronavirus 2 Syndrome Acute Syndrome (SARS-CoV-2). Penularan COVID-19 terjadi karena droplet yang dikeluarkan oleh orang yang terkena COVID-19. Penularan tersebut terjadi dengan cepat hingga meluas diberbagai daerah dipenjuru dunia. Salah satu daerah yang terdampak yaitu Kabupaten Tuban. Minimnya orang yang memperhatikan protokol kesehatan membuat penularan COVID-19 di Tuban semakin cepat. Berbagai tindakan yang tepat sangat dibutuhkan untuk mengatasi penyebaran COVID-19 di kota Tuban. Untuk memberikan tindakan yang tepat dibutuhkan sebuah analisa penyebaran penyakit dengan melihat beberapa parameter yang berpengaruh dalam penyebaran COVID-19. Pada penelitian ini dilakukan simualasi penyebaran COVID-19 menggunakan SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, Recovered) dengan menggunakan metode Runge-Kutta. Populasi Exposed digunakan sebagai populasi yang dicurigai dapat terinfeksi COVID-19. Hasil dari penelitian ini menunjukan bahwa estimasi parameter pada model matematika dapat memperkecil error yang ditunjukkan dengan MAPE yang kecil.

Author Biographies

Ahmad Zaenal Arifin, Program Studi Matematika Universitas PGRI Ronggolawe

Program studi Matematika Universitas PGRI Ronggolawe Tuban

MUHAMMAD FAHRUR ROZI, Universitas Islam negeri Sunan Ampel

Prodi Matematika

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Published

30-10-21

Issue

Vol. 5 No. 2 (2021): Oktober, JRAM

Section

Applied Mathematics

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