Resilient finance: Navigating COVID-19 in the Indonesian capital market through an Islamic economic perspective
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.26740/al-uqud.v8n2.p239-254Abstract
This study examines investor behavior, measured by trading volume activity (TVA) and average abnormal return (AAR), during the COVID-19 pandemic in Indonesia. It provides a comprehensive analysis of the pandemic's impact on four key subsectors: pharmaceuticals, telecommunications, transportation, and food and beverages. Using an event study methodology with daily stock prices and trading volume data, the results reveal varying investor reactions across subsectors. Notably, the pharmaceutical subsector showed significant differences in TVA averages and AAR changes two days before and seven days after the pandemic announcement. In contrast, the food and beverages subsector experienced no significant change in TVA, but notable AAR fluctuations over 11 days. The telecommunications subsector demonstrated significant negative AAR differences post-announcement, despite no TVA changes, while the transportation subsector experienced a negative AAR difference over 11 days with no TVA variations. This detailed sectoral analysis offers valuable insights for stakeholders seeking to understand the differential impact of COVID-19 on various industries.
References
Al-Awadhi, A. M., Alsaifi, K., Al-Awadhi, A., & Alhammadi, S. (2020). Death and contagious infectious diseases: Impact of the COVID-19 virus on stock market returns. Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, 27, 100326. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbef.2020.100326
Aldin, I. U. (2019). Naik 1,7% Selama 2019, IHSG Kalah oleh 3 Bursa Negara di Asia Tenggara.
Alsaifi, K., Elnahass, M., & Salama, A. (2020). Market responses to firms’ voluntary carbon disclosure: Empirical evidence from the United Kingdom. Journal of Cleaner Production, 262, 1–11. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.121377
Alzahrani, M. (2019). Islamic corporate finance, financial markets, and institutions: An overview. Journal of Corporate Finance, 55(December 2018), 1–5. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2018.11.008
Anh, D. L. T., & Gan, C. (2020). The impact of the COVID-19 lockdown on stock market performance: evidence from Vietnam. Journal of Economic Studies. https://doi.org/10.1108/JES-06-2020-0312
Arief, T. (2018). Menjadi Terbaik Kedua di Asia, Ini Pencapaian Kinerja IHSG Sepanjang 2018.
Baaquie, B. E. (2020). Merton’s equation and the quantum oscillator: Pricing risky corporate coupon bonds. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications, 541. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2019.123367
Bai, L., Wei, Y., Wei, G., Li, X., & Zhang, S. (2020). Infectious disease pandemic and permanent volatility of international stock markets: A long-term perspective. Finance Research Letters, May, 101709. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2020.101709
Baig, A. S., Butt, H. A., Haroon, O., & Rizvi, S. A. R. (2020). Deaths, panic, lockdowns and US equity markets: The case of COVID-19 pandemic. Finance Research Letters, 1–9. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2020.101701
Bash, A., & Alsaifi, K. (2019). Fear from uncertainty: An event study of Khashoggi and stock market returns. Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, 23, 54–58. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbef.2019.05.004
BenSaïda, A. (2017). Herding effect on idiosyncratic volatility in U.S. industries. Finance Research Letters, 23, 121–132. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2017.03.001
Bisnis.com. (2020). Saham Farmasi Kembali Menggila, Bagaimana Prospeknya? Artikel ini telah tayang di Bisnis.com dengan judul “Saham Farmasi Kembali Menggila, Bagaimana Prospeknya?”, Klik selengkapnya di sini: https://market.bisnis.com/read/20200925/189/1296697/saham-farmasi.
Bowman, R. G. (1983). Understanding and Conducting Event Studies. Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, 10(4), 561–584. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-5957.1983.tb00453.x
BPS. (2020). Ekonomi Indonesia Triwulan II 2020 Turun 5,32 Persen.
Brown, S. J., & Warner, J. B. (1985). Using daily stock returns: The case of event studies. Journal of Financial Economics, 14, 3–31. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-405X(85)90042-X
Buhagiar, R., Cortis, D., & Newall, P. W. S. (2018). Why do some soccer bettors lose more money than others? Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, 18, 85–93. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbef.2018.01.010
Campbell, J. Y., Lo, A. W., & MacKinlay, A. C. (1997). Event-Study Analysis. In The Econometrics of Financial Markets (pp. 149–180). Princeton University Press. https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400830213-008
Chen, C.-D., Chen, C.-C., Tang, W.-W., & Huang, B.-Y. (2009). The Positive and Negative Impacts of the Sars Outbreak: A Case of the Taiwan Industries. The Journal of Developing Areas, 43(1), 281–293. https://doi.org/10.1353/jda.0.0041
Chen, M.-H., Jang, S. C. (Shawn), & Kim, W. G. (2007). The impact of the SARS outbreak on Taiwanese hotel stock performance: An event-study approach. International Journal of Hospitality Management, 26(1), 200–212. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhm.2005.11.004
Demus, M. N. (2021). Punya prospek positif, cemati saham sektor transportasi dan logistik berikut ini.
Dyckman, T., Philbrick, D., & Stephan, J. (1984). A Comparison of Event Study Methodologies Using Daily Stock Returns: A Simulation Approach. Journal of Accounting Research, 22, 1–30. https://doi.org/10.2307/2490855
Eleftheriou, K., & Patsoulis, P. (2020). COVID-19 Lockdown Intensity and Stock Market Returns: A Spatial Econometrics Approach (100662; Issue May).
Fama, E. F. (1970). Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work. The Journal of Finance, 25(2).
Faozan, A. (2013). Konsep Pasar Modal Syariah. Muqtasid: Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Perbankan Syariah, 4(2), 287. https://doi.org/10.18326/muqtasid.v4i2.287-310
Gujarati, D. N., & Porter, D. C. (2009). Basic Econometrics (5th ed.). McGraw-Hill/Irwin.
Guo, M., Kuai, Y., & Liu, X. (2020). Stock market response to environmental policies: Evidence from heavily polluting firms in China. Economic Modelling, 86, 306–316. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2019.09.028
Habibi, A., Normasyhuri, K., & Anggraeni, E. (2022). The Indonesian Sharia Capital Market in Shock Covid-19: Global Market Interaction. Equilibrium: Jurnal Ekonomi Syariah, 10(2), 381. https://doi.org/10.21043/equilibrium.v10i2.16457
He, P., Sun, Y., Zhang, Y., & Li, T. (2020). COVID–19’s Impact on Stock Prices Across Different Sectors—An Event Study Based on the Chinese Stock Market. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 56(10), 2198–2212. https://doi.org/10.1080/1540496X.2020.1785865
Hendratmi, A., Salleh, M. C. M., Sukmaningrum, P. S., & Ratnasari, R. T. (2024). Toward SDG’s 8: How sustainability livelihood affecting survival strategy of woman entrepreneurs in Indonesia. World Development Sustainability, 5, 100175. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wds.2024.100175
Hsieh, H. C. S. (2014). The causal relationships between stock returns, trading volume, and volatility: Empirical evidence from Asian listed real estate companies. International Journal of Managerial Finance, 10(2), 218–240. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJMF-10-2013-0103
Ichev, R., & Marinč, M. (2018). Stock prices and geographic proximity of information: Evidence from the Ebola outbreak. International Review of Financial Analysis, 56, 153–166. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2017.12.004
IDX. (2019). IDX factbook 2019. PT Bursa Efek Indonesia.
IDX. (2020). IDX Monthly Statistics.
Ihsanudin. (2020). BREAKING NEWS: Jokowi Umumkan Dua Orang di Indonesia Positif Corona.
IMF. (2020). A Crisis Like No Other, An Uncertain Recovery.
Kowalewski, O., & Śpiewanowski, P. (2020). Stock market response to potash mine disasters. Journal of Commodity Markets, 20, 1–22. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcomm.2020.100124
Li, K. (2018). Reaction to news in the Chinese stock market: A study on Xiong’an New Area Strategy. Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, 19, 36–38. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbef.2018.03.004
Litimi, H., BenSaïda, A., & Bouraoui, O. (2016). Herding and excessive risk in the American stock market: A sectoral analysis. Research in International Business and Finance, 38, 6–21. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2016.03.008
Liu, H., Manzoor, A., Wang, C., Zhang, L., & Manzoor, Z. (2020). The COVID-19 outbreak and affected countries stock markets response. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 17(8), 1–19. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17082800
Melani, A. (2021). Peluang Besar Kontribusi Pasar Modal terhadap Ekonomi RI.
Narayan, P. K., Phan, D. H. B., & Liu, G. (2020). COVID-19 lockdowns, stimulus packages, travel bans, and stock returns. Finance Research Letters, 1–7. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2020.101732
Ocktaviani, S. (2020). Saham emiten telekomunikasi dinilai masih menarik.
Roxby, P. (2020). Coronavirus confirmed as pandemic by World Health Organization.
Selasi, D. (2020). Dampak Pandemic Disease Terhadap Perkembangan Pasar Modal Syariah Di Indonesia. Jurnal Ilmiah Indonesia, 5(5), 46–54.
Shanaev, S., & Ghimire, B. (2019). Is all politics local? Regional political risk in Russia and the panel of stock returns. Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, 21, 70–82. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbef.2018.11.002
Simorangkir, E. (2020). Entah Apa yang Merasukinya, IHSG Nyungsep 6,5%.
Situs Satuan Tugas Penanganan COVID-19. (2020). Peta Sebaran.
Szmigiera, M. (2021). Impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the global economy - Statistics & Facts.
Tandelilin, E. (2010). Portofolio dan Investasi: Teori dan aplikasi. Kanisius.
Thampanya, N., Wu, J., Nasir, M. A., & Liu, J. (2020). Fundamental and behavioural determinants of stock return volatility in ASEAN-5 countries. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 65, 101193. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intfin.2020.101193
Ulfah, F. U. (2020). Ini Proyeksi Emiten Sektor Barang Konsumsi di Semester II/2020 Artikel ini telah tayang di Bisnis.com dengan judul “Ini Proyeksi Emiten Sektor Barang Konsumsi di Semester II/2020”, Klik selengkapnya di sini: https://market.bisnis.com/read/20200802/189/127.
Wang, Y.-H., Yang, F.-J., & Chen, L.-J. (2013). An investor’s perspective on infectious diseases and their influence on market behavior. Journal of Business Economics and Management, 14(sup1), S112–S127. https://doi.org/10.3846/16111699.2012.711360
WHO. (2020). Archived: WHO Timeline - COVID-19.
Worldometer. (2021). Coronavirus Worldwide Graphs.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
![Creative Commons License](http://i.creativecommons.org/l/by/4.0/88x31.png)
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
CC BY 4.0![](https://journal.unesa.ac.id/public/site/grafik.png)
![](https://journal.unesa.ac.id/public/site/pdf.png)