Cointegration Analysis of Staple Food Prices and Regional Inflation in East Java, 2020-2024

Rilia Karunia Putri; Widia Mustar; Ayukum Ahsanu Amala

Authors

Rilia Karunia Putri Universitas Negeri Surabaya
Widia Mustar Universitas Negeri Surabaya
Ayukum Ahsanu Amala Universitas Ahmad Dahlan

Keywords:

Staple food prices, Regional inflation, Cointegration, ARDL

Abstract

Food is a significant concern in Indonesia, accounting for 58.81% of total household expenses. Changes in the prices of food commodities affect the rate of inflation. The focus of this study is the analysis of inflation in East Java for shallots, rice, chillies, oil, eggs, and chicken. The data are monthly time series for the years 2020 to 2024, obtained from SISKAPERBAPO. The method used in this study is the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL). The study found that food commodities are subject to monthly price changes and impact inflation. In the short run, inflation is primarily impacted by the prices of rice, red chillies, chicken, and eggs. In the long run, the prices of shallots, rice, chicken, and cooking oil are significant. What these food items have in common is that the items that largely account for that inflation are rice, red chillies, and chicken. Price changes in other food items are likely to be short-lived and can be handled through market forces and civil service policies.

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