MODELING THE SCARCITY OF COOKING OIL IN INDONESIA USING FRACTIONAL-ORDER DIFFERENTIAL EQUATIONS AND FUZZY PARAMETERS

Abstract

Indonesia is the largest palm oil exporter in the world. However, the latest challenge encountered by the Indonesian government is the scarcity of cooking oil in the market and the elevated price of cooking oil. Several policies have been carried out by the government. One of them is fixing the highest retail price for cooking oil. This policy has worsened the scarcity of cooking oil in the market because many distributors are keeping their cooking oil supplies. The Indonesian government's latest policy to manage the cooking oil problem is to provide subsidies for bulk cooking oil and revoke the regulation on the highest retail price for packaged cooking oil. In addition, the government also increased export levies and export duties. To study the impact of these policies, we propose a fractional-order mathematical model with fuzzy parameters. The model obtained is solved numerically. Our results show that the policy of increasing tax levies, export duties, and subsidies for bulk cooking oil will be more effective in solving the cooking oil shortage in Indonesia if the government can convince the public that oil stocks are safe and in the future there will be no shortage of cooking oil.